Report From Forrest on Tuesday…

January 26th, 2016

by Forrest


Still aloft

We flew out of the Santa Fe airport again today. Three of us in the plane. Doug and I were the main eyes while Glenn held the camera in the back seat moving from side to side to get the shots he wanted. He was in awe of the geography, and he kept shaking his head.

We searched around the boat, and up and down the banks, and on the ridge, and in the fringe canyons, and the near-by mesas.

Cochiti Lake is half void of ice now, and we used a few minutes to look in the deep water,  I asked Doug to head back up river.

We took our time flying low up Frijoles canyon, looking hard at the sandy creek bed. No one could climb the sides of that canyon. The waterfall is one of the most compelling places I’ve seen. I kept thinking that beautiful place was trying to tell us something. But what? No buzzards, crows or ravens, no tracks in the sand, no sign of a fire being built, and no Randy Bilyeu.

We have thoroughly searched the places that looked most promising to me, and those that were suggested by searchers who are familiar with the area, or had good hunches.

Later, Sasha, Cindy and I discussed our next plan. After ten hours of searching that 15 mile area from 100’ up, we have exhausted all of the places where we think Randy could be, maybe it’s time to start searching the places where we think he isn’t. But where are they?

77 thoughts on “Report From Forrest on Tuesday…

  1. Our hopes are with all of you searchers, Forrest, your family, and especially Randy and his family. Even if you do not hear from other searchers like me, who are on the sidelines, be assured that we are supporting you with our thoughts. This search for Randy runs deep into us all and our hearts beat quickly with the thoughts of everyone out in the wilds sifting through clues in the mud and among the boulders. Peace be with you all.

  2. Mr. Fenn,

    It is my own opinion that an air search is no longer a method to use in the search. I strongly believe that a ground search is the only way to find signs for where Randy may of traveled. I have been working daily on all the leads that are available and plotting strategic approaches to various areas. I was ready to head down today but there was change to my plans where I was unable to make the trip. I will be down soon for a few days with more equipment to search and document as much area that I can.

    I am sure the family appreciates everyone’s effort in being a team in this difficult time.

    Sir, Thanks for the update.


  3. Knowing that’s is far too late to use a FLR in with an aerial and hoping the state has tried this. I think if he would have been injured he would have crawled to shelter. That said, I would certainly have to think I would have to look under every tree, and I mean every tree.

  4. Dal, it might be time to have a page dedicated to the details. People keep asking the same questions over and over again. A one page go to source might be beneficial. It can cover areas searched and how, maybe even when and by who. Dates and clues. Facts and only facts.

      • Hey Dal
        I agree with you. The facts that we have are :
        1) Leo lived 10 or 11 days on his own. No food and wasn’t killed by nature.
        2) Randy’s car was in the same spot for more than 15 days.
        3) Maps, food, camping eqpt.and hiking gear was inside of his car. (What about a cell phone or lap top or tablet)?
        4) The raft was found on the (wrong) side of the river with Leo.
        5) The raft has a tear in it. Not usable any more.
        6) Frejois Canyon is completely blocked by wash out debri from previous floods. Access is not really a possibility.
        7) No signs of any camps by Randy. Ie no burn spots or garbage or clothing left anywhere around.
        I’m sorry Dal, it’s like Randy just vanished.
        God be you Randy, wherever you maybe.

  5. Thanks for the update, Forrest.

    What might prove useful is a map overlaid with colors or crosshatching to show areas that have been thoroughly searched from the air, those that have been visited by ground searchers, and those that remain to be searched. That way, it would be possible to broaden the search area most effectively without going over old ground too much.

    Looking at the videos it’s clear that the area is both majestic and nightmarishly difficult to navigate safely. But if it were me trying to get out of there (and assuming I’d finished my main search for the day and I didn’t get swept away in the river), I would head for the nearest marked trail and then trudge toward my car (if my sense of direction was still sound).

    Knowing that the car was at least half a day’s march over decent ground, it would be quite likely that Randy would find that darkness and cold descended well before he had time to get close to his destination. It would also be very easy to lose a sense of direction and not be able to see obstacles or dangerous ground. Somewhere between three and six miles (absolute max – although you never know) from the raft would probably be the limit under those conditions. As such, I would draw arcs pushing out from the raft in one mile demarcations and angled towards the northeast. Each mile-wide arc could then be searched.

    I so wish I was able to get down to help with the search, but all you guys down there are doing such a great job, there’s probably little more that can be done.

  6. That is a good question Forrest. I could say go upstream. Looking at google satellite map makes it difficult to say. Might I suggest someone get permission
    From Randy’s family to search his car? Maybe he wrote something on the back of the map he left behind? If I am correct Randy went ashore on the east side of the Reo. Just a little north of the mouth of Frijoles Canyon. There is another canyon north of Frijoles, Chaquehui canyon. North west of Randy’s landing site.
    I am sorry I just do not see much of an attraction to the east side of the river.
    Wait a second, what is this? Pueblo Tank.. Home of brown?? North east of landing zone. Looks within walking distance from landing site. However I do not see an easy way to get up on the mesa. Considering what I am seeing on google map I would be of a mind to walk slowly to the north and south along the cliffs.
    A lot of pockets in those. Go slow and look for footprints in the sand.
    I am sorry Forrest, I wish I could do more.

    Thank you for your efforts.

  7. 1st suggestion…
    *Get a clean map.
    *Draw a 6-8 ml. Circle circumference.
    *Highlight in yellow, all areas searched on foot, orange by air. *Then section circle in a wagon wheel.
    *Each day, take an unsearched segment.
    I know that’s alot of miles.

    2nd suggestion…
    *Get some boots for Leo, let him wear them a couple of days to acclimate to them.
    *Take him to boat and also across river from boat.
    *Watch his reactions. Let him smell something of his, coach “go find daddy/Randy, come on, let’s go get him!” Act enthusiastic so Leo will know.
    *Watch closely for any directional clues he may give, like a start up the canyon by a few steps.

    3rd suggestion, places to look…
    *Tight arroyos noticed by air or drone, they are often filled with brush.
    *Close to the summit walls where caves/niches are easy to crawl into.
    *At the base of hills, he could have fallen and be dirty, blending in.
    *Where the river meets the lake.
    ***Door to door search, with pic of Randy, in the sub division on West side.

    • Donna M, I think you are right that Leo should be taken there. Now that he is well fed he is probably missing Randy, Taking him to the raft area is the only idea that has not been tried.
      Forrest, Thank you for all you and all the searchers are doing, lets give Leo a try, he is dedicated to Randy.
      Sending prayers and love to all involved.

  8. I wonder if Randy purchased a Personal Locator Beacon? (About $250).
    NOAH and AFRCC (Air Force Rescue Coordination Center) monitors the 406 MHz and 121.5 MHz homing frequency emitted when button pushed.
    They MUST be registered with NOAA, then you get a unique identifying number. When activated, the PLB transmits UIN to the COSPAS-SARSAT satellites via bursts.
    In cold temps, the battery transmits about 24hrs, in 70 deg, about 72 hrs.

    Does anyone know if Randy had one? Or purchased one when he bought boat.
    NOAA would have got the signal, but if he didn’t register it, I don’t know if they will search for it.
    ☆☆Maybe NOAA can be contacted to see if they got a signal from that area Jan 4th? They can pull up the GPS hit, but won’t know who it is if not registered, and don’t know if they call search unit for unregistered PLB.

    (I have one, and don’t search without it! It’s a little costly, but a life is worth more than $250! I suggest everyone have one!)

  9. I like the idea of a fresh map with colored highlights showing what has been searched via air and on foot. Anyone offering to retrace Randy’s proposed water path from where he started to where the raft was found? If we retrace where he’s been, something might be revealed. Just a thought…

  10. Forrest I want to thank you for a truly gallant effort. You have really gone above and beyond and so have the all the searchers that have been aiding in the search for Randy.
    Peace be with all of you!

  11. I just posted this on my forum and wanted to post it here. Forrest checked the water and Frijoles my two theories…I don’t see him on the East Rim and what I believe is leaving Leo. So I felt water(forrest said it seemed too low), then I felt Frijoles(forrest checked and says doesn’t seem likely). So I went back to water and wanted to check the gauges. I checked Otawa Bridge and didn’t see anything unusual. Then I checked the Cochiti Dam and found THIS. Does anyone know what could have caused this huge spike? I’ve already sent it to Forrest, Bob(SAR) and Linda…but not heard anything.

    Is it possible that some release of water happened between Otawa Bridge and Cochiti Dam? Maybe because of Los Alamos NL? Are they dumping something ever in the river and he got washed away?

    • Los Alamos Lab seems unlikely, they don’t do that kind of stuff. We have had fluctuating temperatures with snow, possibly run off?

      • I wish I understood what the spike could mean, but it seems odd that it’s at exact day that he went missing. LANL is between those two gauges…anyone else that could dump into the Rio?

        • On the north rim of Frijoles canyon, at the top of the mesa, is a wastewater treatment plant. This most likely dumps the water into the river, after it cleans it.

        • Was just told by email this…so maybe Randy?

          Stephanie, just in case you didn’t know, turbidity is a measure of how clear the water is, not the depth. So it’s possible that if something got in the way of the infra-red sensor that measures it, there would be a spike.

          • Ok could water have been released and “pulled” him?

            Just got this email from Doug Scott. I sent him the photo of the falls in Frijoles that Randy took in Dec. I also wanted to ask you guys….are those the only falls around there or could he have known about more that he wanted to check out?


            yes, that is the upper falls. as you can see in this photo, there is no
            place to hide there. below the lower falls there is much hidden ravines
            and crevasses….and navagating the lower falls (going up or down) is
            virtually impossible because of sheer walls. i have climbed up from below
            around the lower falls and it was extremely sketchy…all-fours clutching
            to sheer walls. if i were to search for him i would look below the lower
            falls up on the steep hillside above and north of the creekbed
            IP Address: Logged

    • Stephanie, that graph from USGS reflects the amount of suspended sediment in the water, e.g. muddiness and is a test of water quality. Here is graph showing water flow rate below the dam during that period, which seemed pretty constant over the week with a bit of an increase toward the end.

      • That’s a good flow but if spread over a wide channel, it could be waded across possibly using a stick to help with balance. That said, one would have to have a pretty good idea that they were going to improve their situation to attempt a crossing or be extremely desperate. If Randy was on dry ground, a fire would be an obvious advantage. Is it possible that he had no way to make a fire? That seems very unlikely given his preparations. I think some how he was lost in the water through some sort of accident. Just my humble opinion…

    • Hi Stephanie, turbidity measures water quality and things which can effect high sediment levels are industries such as quarrying and mining; has there been a landslide type event along river? The graph shows a large peak…how much sediment would be needed to create that peak, I don’t know, but it certainly is a significant peak.

  12. Forrest,
    Are there points along the river that someone could walk/wade across?
    What level of desperation would be required to inspire someone to do that?
    Or would it be an easy crossing?

  13. If Leo had not been found near the inflatable boat, I would immediately agree that Randy and Leo must be outside the most reasonable, rational areas; the areas that have been searched. It is astounding how far, and in which directions, desperate people who are lost go.

    But Leo was found in the most logical area where Randy still is.

    Sacha just reported that the boot prints in Frijoles might by NMSAR. If that is true, then I think Randy is near Lower Falls, west edge, after he tried to find a route around the falls.

    • According to PM (who seems to know what he’s talking about; I’m pretty sure he was on the helicopter that found the raft), NMSAR dogs did not search Frijoles. If true, the tracks may not be Leo’s but they’re defintely not NMSAR dogs.

    • Desertphile, as you have been there and I haven’t, you may be correct. But from where I sit, that seems unlikely. here’s why I say that: he rafted down to walk up Frijoles canyon because he already knew that where he wanted to look was inaccessible by foot/from above the falls. I’m with Voxpops on this, that the “most likely cause of action” was for him to walk out on the East rim and either make for his vehicle or a lighted building to get warm. And as I shared over on the “facts only” thread, I wonder if he spent at least one night and part of a day waiting for help to arrive.

      • Desertphile, I just realized that you may be agreeing with my assesment in that he is on the East bank – as I do not have any idea where the coordinates are that you posted.

      • I am thinking you are right, @swwot; Randy headed back to his car and got in trouble. He might not have known about the foot trail up to the top of the east rim, starting about 650 feet south of the raft. There is (er, or perhaps “was”) a rather tall rock pile there that marks the spot, and Randy might not have known why the pile is there. Randy places a faded “X” near the arroyo a bit farther south, so he must have past the rock pile if he searched that arroyo entrance.

        Since his car was on the east bank, Randy might have believed he should stay on the east bank and not cross to the west side (where the much easier trails are).

        Just guessing of course, but I assume Randy would carry Leo if they had to step into the river. There are a series of obstructions on the east bank where one must either get into the river, or one must climb the steep cliff face, to go up-river.

        As it is, since a Park Service searcher reported boot prints going into and out of Frijoles, I would not give that area priority. I suspect Randy is one mile or less from where the boat was, and on the east side.

  14. Although anything’s possible, using Occam’s Razor would suggest that, since the raft and Leo were discovered on the east bank, Randy will be somewhere to the east, also.

  15. Is the car parked where it can be seen from where he would put in at the river? If Randy had to get out for whatever reason and the raft continued down with out him, he may have gone up river to get to the car but bypassed the put in place and could be farther upriver. Long shot but if you have ever traveled down a trail or river it looks completely different the other way.

    • Reports have said the car was the end of Buckman Road (which is dirt), but that’s not real precise. Buckman sort of ends but fans out into other “roads” near a secured water utility facility. From there, the easiest put-in is a couple hundred feet downstream at the end of Diablo Canyon. Depending on exactly where the car was parked in that area would determine whether or not it was actually line-of-sight visible from the Rio. Regardless, it would’ve been very close. I don’t think the exact lat/long coords have been reported yet.

      But, I’m thinking the car had to be within sight of the water facility because it was reported that a guard for the facility noticed the car parked nearby on the 5th, then again on the 12th. If, it was parked at the end of Diablo, the guard probably would not have noticed it.

      If Randy worked his way back upstream as you suggest, he would surely have not missed his put-in locale. Diablo Canyon is quite distinctive, even from the water.

      What shocks me is that his car sat there for over a week and wasn’t vandalized or broken into. I wouldn’t leave my car there even overnight.

      • probably not within a direct link e of sight but could have been seen if he walked away from the facility towards the river.

  16. Forrest,

    Thank you for all you have done for Randy, his family and the searcher family. You certainly wear the hair of the bear well my friend.


  17. I posted this at ChaseChat, but there are many others here who are actively searching and looking for new possibilities:

    Previously, Stephanie asked why Randy would go back in the water without Leo. Here are four scenarios as to why Randy may have attempted to cross back to the Frijoles (west) side of the Rio Grande after beaching the raft on the east side:

    1) He was already wet, and the old trails along the riverbank from Frijoles to Ancho and from Ancho to the Red Dot Trail up to White Rock town would have been much faster with less chance of getting lost. From there he could get a taxi (Los Alamos Taxi) back to his car. It would have been too risky trying to carry Leo across while fighting the mud, quicksand, and the main channel. He could retrieve Leo the next day from the top of the east rim.

    2) The riverbank route to White Rock was his plan all along. He could have scoped it out as he came downriver with the raft. The previous east rim trip was just a scouting trip. However, Leo fell in the water at Frijoles as Randy was doing something with the raft (pulling it in or moving it to a less conspicuous spot) at the shoreline, and he chased down Leo using the raft and wound up on the east riverbank sandbar. He decided to cross back over the river to his primary exit plan, but left Leo for the reasons noted above. Also, if Leo had fallen in the river, he would have been skittish about being carried across afterwards.

    3) If there was a mishap with Leo falling in the river, Randy may have jumped back in the raft to chase Leo down, but may have accidentally left his backpack on the Frijoles shore in the commotion. He would have had to cross back to get the backpack. If the east rim was the exit plan, he would have to cross the river twice to retrieve the backpack. If he got wet or scared on the first crossing, he may have decided to go for White Rock and get back to Leo in the morning from the top of the east rim.

    4) After failing to find the chest at Frijoles, he rafted to the sandbar with the intention of taking the east rim exit that night or in the morning. In frustration, he remembers a secondary target just across the river about 250 feet northwest of the sandbar, but about 300 feet higher than the riverbank. On Google Earth it looks like a potential “hole” (not a river hole, however). It is probably a trick of shadow, but i thought it was a hole for a long time until John Brown pointed out how high it is located. That may have caused the shadowing to be deceptive for both myself and for Randy. Randy would have been looking at it and tried for it in the morning. No need to take the dog because he would be in sight of the dog the entire time. But it required two river crossings to get there and back, and the river may have taken him. The location of the possible hole is 35.750027, -106.261785. . He would have taken his backpack to have a means to carry the treasure chest.

    If you think this hole is unlikely and that Randy wouldn’t have any interest in it, look at his map, especially the enlarged version. There is a faint ink dot at approximately this location. The dot is near the river below the last big ink period at the end of H.O.B. on the map. If Randy thought 9-Mile Hole or talk of fishing holes was a clue, he may have focused on this geographic feature before he went. Once he was back on the west bank, and failed to find the treasure again, his trip across the river could have scared him, and he changed his mind about going back across — changing to the White Rock route discussed above.

    One place he may have screwed up was at Ancho. I understand that the trail back to the Red Dot Trail at White Rock is not at the river edge, but is back about a quarter mile from the river (based on a description of this hike on the internet). If he did not know or remember this, he may have missed that part of the trail and been too close to the river. Any search party at Ancho should be prepared to look in this area between the river and the trail.

    I also believe he had tennis shoes with him (seen in other pictures) even if he did not have boots. So trackers need to look for a variety of tracks. He could also have had boots — when I search, I have several pairs of boots and leave some in the car in case my main boots get wet. Tennis shoes would not be great for hiking, but would be better than the wader booties. I am sure he also had a regular flashlight in addition to the phone. Forrest said to take a flashlight, and anyone who has been out searching as much as he has would have had a decent LED flashlight with him (or several). There is a likelihood he also had a thermal “blanket” (pocket sized), which he could have used under the raft with Leo on the first night. With a flashlight in hand, he may well have decided to go for it at night, but went for the river route to White Rock (which I understand can be slightly inland at times and is not necessarily right at the river.) Flashlight batteries would probably drain before he got halfway, unfortunately.

    Bandelier rangers may already have searched for tracks at Frijoles headed upriver toward Ancho. If they did look, and did not find any, it may rule out this route, and the river may have taken him before he got a chance to follow the route. If they just looked at the “official” old trail, they may have missed Randy tracks if he did not know the exact way the trail heads upriver. I don’t think SAR looked at Frijoles for tracks or for Randy since it is not their territory. If the old trail to Ancho is “washed out” somewhere, Randy may not have known this.

    If a search party of good hikers could get permission from Bandelier to go down the “secret” but “public” trail to lower Frijoles (???) and head upriver from there to the Red Dot Trail, I believe it would have some merit. Maybe a drone guy could go with them, but only fly the drone once they are outside of Bandelier territory. Better yet, fly a few searchers in using a helicopter if a helicopter is allowed to land at Frijoles at the river (I doubt it). Fly several loads of searchers in to have a sufficient search party.

    • @Dick Evans, I like your thinking, except for: “It would have been too risky trying to carry Leo across while fighting the mud, quicksand, and the main channel. He could retrieve Leo the next day from the top of the east rim.”

      As I noted elsewhere, I would die before I left my dog; I assume Randy would never leave Leo.

      The hole you pointed to, at 35.750027, -106.261785, is shadow from a hill about 25 feet tall. That entire area was searched via helicopter twice.

  18. Desert…I don’t understand your coordinates. I am used to degrees, minutes, seconds. What are you numbers to the right of the decimal point? Can you give GE coordinates please? Thanks and excellent comments too…

    • @toughshed, “Desert…I don’t understand your coordinates. I am used to degrees, minutes, seconds. What are you numbers to the right of the decimal point? Can you give GE coordinates please?”

      I use base ten instead of base 60: that means 36.5 degrees is 36 degrees 30 minutes zero seconds. Postive numbers for latitude are north, negative latitudes are south; postive longitudes are east, negative numbers are west.
      This is the most common format in many modern software programs, including GPS programs and astronomy programs.

      35.756310, -106.258738 converts to N35°45’22.72″ W106°15’31.46″

    • Toughshed,

      In GE, click on Tools, then Options, then 3D View, then under Show Lat/Long choose Decimal Degrees instead of Degrees Minutes Seconds and it will show coordinates in this format…

  19. Like everyone else, been thinking about this some more.
    The dog to me is the clue.
    only 1 clue, not 9 thank goodness.

    I think that if those two, Leo and Randy, where that close and always together, that Randy would have taken or at least tried to take Leo with him across the river. Would you leave a little dog to the wild animals?

    Now, if he started getting into trouble and his wader were filling up, he would probably toss Leo back to shore or let him go (on purpose or accidentally) and Leo would make it to shore while Randy was taken down stream.
    Leo, not knowing were to go, would stay there waiting for him to return.

    If Randy was safe on the East side and tried to get out, Leo would probably still be with Randy even if he got into trouble. Leo would most likely go back to the river for water but would probably go back to Randy and wait.

    So, either the Helicopter happened to be at the river when Leo was or Leo never left the area.
    Which would mean that Randy is still in the area.

    My gut tells me that either Randy is somewhere in the water between the boat and the lake, or he will be found within 100 yards from the boat. Maybe covered in grass to stay warm.

    The other option is that he got swept down river, was able to make it ashore a few miles down and tried to get back to Leo.
    Which could mean that he is anywhere down river. Most likely he would try and follow the river but if its not passable, he would have to go inland.

    Let alone succumbing to hypothermia.

  20. For all you mystics out there. I just consulted the I Ching (Book of Changes) concerning where Randy presently is. The results are: #40 Chen/K’an, Hsieh/Deliverance with a moving 6 line in the 5th line from the bottom. The first interpretation states: Here the movement goes out of the sphere of danger. The obstacle has been removed, the difficulties are being resolved. Deliverance is not achieved; it is just in the beginning, and the hexagram represents its various stages.

    The Judgement

    Deliverance. The southwest furthers. If there is no longer anything where one has to go, return brings good fortune. If there is still,something where one has to go, hastening brings good fortune. This refers to a time in which tensions and complications begin to be eased. At such times we ought to make our way back to ordinary conditions as soon as possible; this is the meaning of “the southwest”. These periods of sudden change have great importance. Just as rain relieves atmospheric tension, making all the buds burst open, so a time of deliverance from burdensome pressure has a liberating and stimulating effect on life. One thing is important, however: in such times we must not overdo our triumph. The point is not to push on farther then is necessary. Returning to the regular order of life as soon as deliverance is achieved brings good fortune. If there are any residual matters that ought to be attended to, it should be done as quikly as possible, so that a clean sweep is made and no retardations occur.

    The Image

    Thunder and rain set in:
    The image of DELIVERANCE.
    Thus the superior man pardons mistakes
    and forgives misdeeds.

    A thunderstorm has the effect of clearing the air; the superior man produces a similar effect when dealing with mistakes and sins of men that induces condition of tension. Through clarity he brings deliverance. However, when failings come to light, he does not dwell on them; he simply passes over mistakes, the unintentional transgressions, just as thunder dies away. He forgives misdeeds, the intentional transgressions. just as water washes everything clean.



    Six in the fifth place means:

    If only the superior man can deliver himself,
    It brings good fortune.
    Thus he proves to inferior men that he is in earnest.

    Times of deliverance demand inner resolve. Inferior people cannot be driven off by prohibitions or any external means. If one desires to be rid of them, he must first break completely with them in his own mind; they will see for themselves that he is in earnest and will withdraw.

    My two cents: I think some attention should be given to the posted report that there was a high discharge of water on the Rio Grande on Jan. 5. This could have overwhelmed Randy and swept him downstream.

    I”ll provide the I Ching”s second interpretation of this reading in a later post after I get something to eat.

  22. I just got in today and have not read all the comments yet. So this may have been posted already.
    Linda Bilyeu started a Facebook Group. You can find it by searching on FB for Randy Bilyeu.

  23. I tried to suggest some things to search. No one seemed interested. When I get to S.F. I will search. I don’t believe he would of ever left his doggie. No way.

    • @Lou Lee Belle, “I tried to suggest some things to search. No one seemed interested”

      I do not know what you suggested, but I suspect many people here have been suggesting the same things. All of the most likely places to search have been, on feet and via helicopter. The only most-likely place to search cannot be searched at the moment— the lake. To continue searching, people have to look is areas that are gradually less likely for Randy to be in.

      And I think you are right: Randy would not abandon Leo. I think Leo abandoned Randy, after sticking with Randy for a few days; the need for water would have driven Leo back to the river.

  24. Forrest,
    For this, I’m assuming Randy is hypothermic, and moving on instinct (and maybe injured), and moving away from the raft on the East side of the river.
    Partially following the sun, or moon, he might have made an arced path toward the East and South. Maybe only 1/2 to 1 mile per day for ? number of days.
    You may want to make a search in the South East quadrant from the raft. He may have even arced back around to the river, way South of the raft.

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